Last week in international authoritarianism
Our weekly roundup of the assaults on freedom taking place around the world. Stay up to date on the global fights for democracy.
It’s been a busy week on the international scene, so let’s get right into it.
RUSSIA:
Here’s what I consider the top story in this space from the last week:
The Russian FSB arrested WSJ reporter Evan Gershkovich on supposed “espionage” charges. The Kremlin wants leverage over the West for as of yet unspecified reasons. The Russians are known to push through convictions—regardless of evidence or lack thereof—on charges of espionage against foreigners, so while this is an extremely cynical and transparent move, it could prove to be very significant.
I sincerely hope Gershkovich is released unharmed in short order but history indicates this is unlikely. Here’s reporting on this story from the AP:
Russia’s security service arrested an American reporter for The Wall Street Journal on espionage charges, the first time a U.S. correspondent has been detained on spying accusations since the Cold War. The newspaper denied the allegations and demanded his release.
Evan Gershkovich was detained in the city of Yekaterinburg while allegedly trying to obtain classified information, the Federal Security Service, known by the acronym FSB, said Thursday.
The service, which is the top domestic security agency and main successor to the Soviet-era KGB, alleged that Gershkovich “was acting on instructions from the American side to collect information about the activities of one of the enterprises of the Russian military-industrial complex that constitutes a state secret.”
The Journal “vehemently denies the allegations from the FSB and seeks the immediate release of our trusted and dedicated reporter, Evan Gershkovich,” the newspaper said. “We stand in solidarity with Evan and his family.”
RUSSIA (CONT’D)
Earlier in the week, Russia claimed to be moving nuclear weapons into Belarus.
Russian President Vladimir Putin announced plans on Saturday to station tactical nuclear weapons in neighboring Belarus, a warning to the West as it steps up military support for Ukraine.
Putin said the move was triggered by Britain’s decision this past week to provide Ukraine with armor-piercing rounds containing depleted uranium.
But really, the Russians did it for … pick a reason. Belarus is more or less a Russian client state today, and the Kremlin carried out this escalation because they can and wanted to. The story continues:
Russian President Vladimir Putin announced plans on Saturday to station tactical nuclear weapons in neighboring Belarus, a warning to the West as it steps up military support for Ukraine.
Putin said the move was triggered by Britain’s decision this past week to provide Ukraine with armor-piercing rounds containing depleted uranium.
The AP spent 48 hours with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Ukraine. Zelensky told them the Russian offensive in Bakhmut remains stalled, but he stressed the importance of Ukraine preventing a Russian takeover of the city. He further stated that, if Russia is to take the city, he expects to receive tremendous pressure from Russia’s allies and even some Ukrainians to come to a peace settlement with the Russian government. Zelensky told the AP, “Our society will feel tired,” he said. “Our society will push me to have compromise with them.” The article also says:
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned Tuesday that unless his nation wins a drawn-out battle in a key eastern city, Russia could begin building international support for a deal that could require Ukraine to make unacceptable compromises. He also invited the leader of China, long aligned with Russia, to visit.
If Bakhmut fell to Russian forces, their president, Vladimir Putin, would “sell this victory to the West, to his society, to China, to Iran,” Zelenskyy said in an exclusive interview with The Associated Press.
“If he will feel some blood — smell that we are weak — he will push, push, push,” Zelenskyy said in English, which he used for virtually all of the interview.
UNITED STATES
Some Texas Republicans are going full on far-right extremist with their plans at the southern border. They’re proposing a law which critics say would allow vigilante death squads to hunt migrants free from prosecution.
Ryan Devereaux writes for The Intercept:
By seeking to create a state security force that would include private citizens amassed to “repel” border crossers and do battle with “cartel operatives,” the proposal — House Bill 20 — did make news. If it passes, Texas will field a new unit under its Department of Public Safety to track down, arrest, and deport undocumented people.
Stationed at the border, the unit will be run by a chief serving at the pleasure of the governor, who will oversee a mix of locally recruited law enforcement and ordinary citizens “without a felony conviction.” Unit members will have immunity from criminal prosecution and lawsuits in pursuing their mission to “arrest, detain, and deter individuals crossing the border illegally including with the use of non-deadly force.” They will also “use force to repel, arrest, and detain known transnational cartel operatives in the border region.” Private citizens will be given arrest powers if they are “trained and specifically authorized by the governor.”
Companion legislation in the Texas Senate, if passed, will make undocumented entry into Texas a state crime — with first-time offenders facing a year in prison, second-time offenders facing two, and offenders with a prior felony conviction facing life behind bars. The new unit will exist until at least 2030, at which point Texas lawmakers will decide on its reauthorization. Republicans have called the bill the “Border Protection Unit Act.” Texas Democrats have gone a different direction, dubbing the proposal the “vigilante death squads policy.”
“This dangerous, radical, and unconstitutional proposal which empowers border vigilantes to hunt migrants and racially profile Latinos is going to result in the death of innocent people,” Victoria Neave Criado, the Democratic chair of Mexican American Legislative Caucus, said in a statement last week. “MALC is going to do everything in our power to kill this legislation just as Latino State Representatives for the past 5 decades have fought against Klan-like proposals.”
ISRAEL
Meanwhile, in Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s decision to fire his defense minister over his dissent to Netanyahu’s proposed changes to the judicial system led to massive public backlash and huge protests in the street. The changes were considered by many to be an autocratic power grab by the Prime Minister whose government is the most far-right in the country’s history.
Josef Federman and Ilan Ben Zion write for the AP:
Bending to a wave of mass protests, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delayed his contentious judicial overhaul plan Monday and said he wanted “to avoid civil war” by making time to seek a compromise with political opponents.
The announcement appeared to calm some of the tensions that have fueled three tumultuous months of unrest. But it failed to address the underlying issues that have polarized the nation, and the anti-government protest movement vowed to intensify its efforts.
In his prime-time address, Netanyahu, who had previously rejected calls to delay the legislation, took a more conciliatory tone than in recent speeches. He acknowledged the deep divisions in the country and said he was hitting the pause button “to prevent a rift in the nation.”
They add:
The proposal has plunged Israel into its worst domestic crisis in decades. Business leaders, top economists and former security chiefs have all come out against the plan, saying it is pushing the country toward an autocracy. Fighter pilots and military reservists have threatened not to report for duty, and the country’s currency, the shekel, has tumbled in value.
The plan would give Netanyahu, who is on trial on corruption charges, and his allies the final say in appointing the nation’s judges. It would also give parliament, which is controlled by his allies, authority to overturn Supreme Court decisions and limit the court’s ability to review laws.
Netanyahu has argued that the overhaul is needed to rein in a liberal and overly interventionist court of unelected judges. But his opponents say the package would damage the country’s system of checks and balances by concentrating power in the hands of Netanyahu’s allies. They also say that he has a conflict of interest as a criminal defendant.
Tens of thousands of people, largely secular, middle-class Israelis, have regularly joined mass protests against the plan.
Those demonstrations ramped up Sunday night after Netanyahu abruptly fired Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, who had urged the prime minister to put his plan on hold, citing concerns about damage to the Israeli military.
The firing sparked a spontaneous outburst of anger, with tens of thousands of people taking to the streets in just one hour.
Chanting “the country is on fire,” they lit bonfires on Tel Aviv’s main highway, closing the thoroughfare and many others throughout the country for hours.
BRAZIL
Fresh off a coup that wasn’t in Brazil and some time hiding out in Florida, former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is back in the country. He plans to lead the country’s right-wing opposition to President Lula da Silva, but we’ll see if he stays out of jail for his role in a coup which was at the very least plotted by some of his close advisers.
Tom Phillips writes for The Guardian:
Three months after he left Brazil to avoid passing the presidential sash to his leftist rival Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the former president Jair Bolsonaro has flown back to the South American country hoping to prove his political career is far from over.
The far-right radical flew to the US on the eve of Lula’s 1 January inauguration and watched the historic transition of power from a rented villa near Disney World in Florida. It was from Florida, too, that Bolsonaro watched the 8 January assault on Brazil’s democratic institutions perpetrated by hardcore supporters seemingly bent on overthrowing Lula’s new government.
Adding:
Brazil’s capital had been put on “red alert” ahead of Bolsonaro’s return. On Wednesday night barricades and troops could be seen protecting the presidential palace, supreme court and congress – the three buildings ransacked by Bolsonaro backers at the start of the year during Brazil’s answer to the 6 January attack on the Capitol by supporters of his ally Donald Trump.
But fears of further violence were not confirmed on Thursday morning as Bolsonaro touched down in Brazil’s capital on board a Boeing 737 painted with images from Harry Potter.
Flag-waving supporters waiting for the former army captain at the airport were disappointed after their leader failed to appear through the sliding doors at arrivals. Security chiefs had reportedly ordered the ex-president be extracted through a side exit to avoid causing havoc.
His politician son Eduardo Bolsonaro did appear at the airport, however, to insist his father was still in the political game despite his three-month absence, which had frustrated many supporters.
“It is very symbolic that he is coming back to Brazil and his support is still very, very strong,” Eduardo, a pro-gun congressman who is close to Steve Bannon, told the Guardian.
What would his father, who does not now hold elected office for the first time in more than 30 years, do now?
“He will lead the opposition. He is a natural leader,” he replied, predicting that Lula would fail to complete his four-year term and vowing to fight for his impeachment.
Political observers are sceptical about Jair Bolsonaro’s immediate political future. The former president faces a litany of investigations into alleged crimes, including his handling of a Covid pandemic that killed at least 700,000 Brazilians and his role in the alleged attempted genocide of the Yanomami Indigenous people in the Amazon.
Bolsonaro is also reportedly facing an investigation into alleged embezzlement as a result of a mounting scandal involving millions of dollars of diamond jewellery and watches given to the ex-president by Saudi Arabia. “My father is not corrupt,” Eduardo Bolsonaro insisted at the airport, shrugging off those investigations.
Many expect that electoral authorities will strip Bolsonaro of his political rights, making it impossible for him to seek to return to the presidency at the next election in 2026.
BRAZIL (CONT’D)
It’s worth pointing out here that while Lula’s win was a win for democracy, but Lula still isn’t an ally for the United States. I believe Biden was right to emphasize the importance of Lula’s win from a pro-Democracy standpoint, but geopolitics are another matter entirely. Lula’s first spell as President saw him increase trade and cooperation with China, and he’s making similar moves this time around. The latest from Barron’s:
China and Brazil have reached a deal to trade in their own currencies, ditching the US dollar as an intermediary, the Brazilian government said Wednesday, Beijing's latest salvo against the almighty greenback.
The deal will enable China, the top rival to US economic hegemony, and Brazil, the biggest economy in Latin America, to conduct their massive trade and financial transactions directly, exchanging yuan for reais and vice versa instead of going through the dollar.
"The expectation is that this will reduce costs... promote even greater bilateral trade and facilitate investment," the Brazilian Trade and Investment Promotion Agency (ApexBrasil) said in a statement.
China is Brazil's biggest trading partner, with a record $150.5 billion in bilateral trade last year.
The deal, which follows a preliminary agreement in January, was announced after a high-level China-Brazil business forum in Beijing.
SYRIA AND IRAN
Meanwhile, tensions between the U.S. and Iran are heating up in Syria after the death of an American contractor by an Iranian drone.
Michael Callahan, Oren Liebermann, Natasha Bertrand and Haley Britzky write for CNN:
President Joe Biden emphasized Friday afternoon that the US will “forcefully protect our people,” a day after approving retaliatory airstrikes in response to a drone attack by an Iranian-backed group in Syria that left one American dead and more injured.
But it seemed the president’s actions, and warnings from US officials, had not deterred the attacks, as shortly before he spoke, another American service member was injured in a separate strike in Syria.
“Make no mistake: the United States does not – does not – seek conflict with Iran. But be prepared for us to forcefully protect our people,” Biden had said during remarks in Canada on Friday afternoon, where he is on a two-day visit.
“That’s exactly what happened last night,” he went on. “We’re going to continue to keep up our efforts to counter terrorist threats in the region.”
The president’s remarks marked his first public comments since the US carried out a strike Thursday evening on Iranian facilities that the Pentagon said were used by groups affiliated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. The response – which the Pentagon said was “proportionate and deliberate action intended to limit the risk of escalation and minimize casualties” – came after a suspected Iranian drone struck a facility housing US personnel in the country, killing an American contractor and wounding five US service members.
On Friday, another US service member was injured but in stable condition following a rocket attack near oil and gas fields known as Conoco in the vicinity of Deir Ezzor in Syria, a US official confirmed to CNN.
Adding:
The strikes are likely to increase tensions with Iran, with which the proxy groups are aligned, though Tehran isn’t always involved in directing attacks that they conduct. The US has already sanctioned Tehran for providing attack drones to Russia to use in the war in Ukraine. And on Thursday, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley reiterated US concerns that Iran has the potential to produce enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon in less than two weeks and manufacture one within months.
CHINA / TAIWAN / HONDURAS:
Honduras cut diplomatic ties with Taiwan in a move that promises them closer cooperation with Beijing. There is a deliberate plan by the mainland Chinese government to further cut off and isolate Taiwan on the international stage.
Honduras said on Saturday it was ending its decades-long diplomatic relations with Taiwan, bringing it closer to China as it expands its footprint in Central America.
"The government of Honduras recognizes the existence of just one China," the Honduran foreign ministry said in a post on Twitter. "The government of China is the only legitimate government that represents all of China."
The ministry said Honduras had notified Taiwan of its decision to break ties, and that it would not return to having any relationship or official contact with Taiwan.
The Honduran foreign minister traveled to China this week to open relations after President Xiomara Castro said her government would start ties with Beijing.
Honduras was one of only 14 countries to formally recognize Taiwan.
China views Taiwan as one of its provinces with no right to state-to-state ties, a view the democratically elected government in Taipei strongly disputes.
The decision by Honduras to cut ties prompted warnings from the de facto U.S. embassy in Taipei on Saturday that China often makes promises in exchange for recognition that remain unfulfilled.
CHINA (CONT’D):
According to Chinese leader Xi Jinping, China is preparing for war.
As John Pomfret and Matt Pottinger write for Foreign Affairs:
Chinese leader Xi Jinping says he is preparing for war. At the annual meeting of China’s parliament and its top political advisory body in March, Xi wove the theme of war readiness through four separate speeches, in one instance telling his generals to “dare to fight.” His government also announced a 7.2 percent increase in China’s defense budget, which has doubled over the last decade, as well as plans to make the country less dependent on foreign grain imports. And in recent months, Beijing has unveiled new military readiness laws, new air-raid shelters in cities across the strait from Taiwan, and new “National Defense Mobilization” offices countrywide.
It is too early to say for certain what these developments mean. Conflict is not certain or imminent. But something has changed in Beijing that policymakers and business leaders worldwide cannot afford to ignore. If Xi says he is readying for war, it would be foolish not to take him at his word.
They add specifics as to the steps the Chinese state is taking to increase their readiness:
In February, the top deliberative body of the National People’s Congress adopted the Decision on Adjusting the Application of Certain Provisions of the [Chinese] Criminal Procedure Law to the Military During Wartime, which, according to the state-run People’s Daily, gives the Central Military Commission the power to adjust legal provisions, including “jurisdiction, defense and representation, compulsory measures, case filings, investigation, prosecution, trial, and the implementation of sentences.” Although it is impossible to predict how the decision will be used, it could become a weapon to target individuals who oppose a takeover of Taiwan. The PLA might also use it to claim legal jurisdiction over a potentially occupied territory, such as Taiwan. Or Beijing could use it to compel Chinese citizens to support its decisions during wartime.
Since December, the Chinese government has also opened a slew of National Defense Mobilization offices—or recruitment centers—across the country, including in Beijing, Fujian, Hubei, Hunan, Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Shanghai, Sichuan, Tibet, and Wuhan. At the same time, cities in Fujian Province, across the strait from Taiwan, have begun building or upgrading air-raid shelters and at least one “wartime emergency hospital,” according to Chinese state media. In March, Fujian and several cities in the province began preventing overseas IP addresses from accessing government websites, possibly to impede tracking of China’s preparations for war.
Finally, they add that Xi is clear on who his enemy is:
Xi also blasted the United States directly in his speech, breaking his practice of not naming Washington as an adversary except in historical contexts. He described the United States and its allies as leading causes of China’s current problems. “Western countries headed by the United States have implemented containment from all directions, encirclement and suppression against us, which has brought unprecedented severe challenges to our country’s development,” he said. Whereas U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration has emphasized “guardrails” and other means of slowing the deterioration of U.S.-China relations, Beijing is clearly preparing for a new, more confrontational era.
We ought to take this threat seriously. Until next time!